The recent issues with the Mississippi River being stricken with drought close to and in the Southeastern United States bring about the question of climate change and the potential effects on business and supply chains.
The answer to the question of how climate change will affect the river over time is still being worked on with some studies pointing to a dryer future. For businesses planning for an uncertain future, specificity in answering the question is still possible using comparison models.
Research
The National Science Foundation recently backed a study on defining how climate change will affect the Mississippi River in the coming years due to climate change. The study, which will be led by a Rice-University, is going to study how climate change will affect future instances of flooding on the river.
Sylvia Dee, assistant professor in Rice University’s Earth, Environmental and Planetary Sciences school, and principal investigator of the three-year grant, said in a release from the university, “The real question of motivating our research is: How will climate change alter the frequency and magnitude of flooding on the river?”
Rice’s release points to two different possible effects of climate warming on the Mississippi: drought and intense rain. The release explains that warmer air can increase evaporation when it’s dry because that will parch the soil; on the other hand, the warmer air can also hold more moisture, which leads “to more extreme rainfall.”
Dee explains in the release that there is uncertainty about what the effects of climate warming will be and at what time period.
Looking at historical data, other research shows the potential for a decline in river flow on the lower Mississippi. A study dubbed the “Reduced Lower Mississippi River Discharge During the Medieval Era” looked at 1600 years of data and identified a period from the years 1000-1200 CE, which was a time that had warm and dry conditions, according to the study’s authors.
The results of looking at historical models showed reduced discharge (volume of water flow in the river) during that era, according to information in the study. That led researchers to conclude this information implied “that this major river system responds to moderate warming by decreasing its river discharge.”
The researchers in the study also stated that the future of the Mississippi River remains uncertain, but their study still shows that the river, integral to transporting agricultural products, is sensitive to changes in climate. The authors also said that the study “provides constraints to recent and projected changes in river discharge as a result of greenhouse forcing.”
Business case and supply chains?
For businesses and/or suppliers looking for answers with so much uncertainty, at least so far, in the research, other factors can also be considered: cost, innovation and other streams of keeping ahead of the competition. For businesses going into the future, some actors or firms are considering the future as certain to change, and not for the better. This leaves many actors and firms with opportunities that didn’t exist in prior time.
On the cost front, at least at this juncture, rail is a pricier alternative to moving products down the Mississippi than barges. But this doesn’t mean that suppliers and buyers should just lie down and take it and say this is the answer. Growing or starting a network of knowledgeable individuals and organizations can help resolve some of the problems by working together and finding solutions that can benefit all stakeholders. This wouldn’t be the first time in history that large networks would come together for the greater good of the industry. These efforts don’t have to be limited to just large corporations either: Small businesses can come together to reach large goals. What’s too costly today can become more affordable and feasible tomorrow with planning and chipping away, piece by piece.
The Thinking About Sustainability Series explores sustainability strategies, bringing coverage to the forefront of the transitioning world of business and society.